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李蓓“等风来”_我的网站

一 |     出品 | 妙投APP          作者 | 刘国辉          编辑 | 关雪菁          头图 | 李蓓个人公众号                    今天早上发布了《李蓓被流量耽误了》一文，对于文中观点，半夏投资创始人李蓓迅速给出了回应。在影响力上，李蓓的势能依然强大，半夏投资公众号发文三个小时后，流量已经接近10W+，转发量更是超过6000。私募圈顶流实至名归。                   李蓓在文中提到，“里面其实有不少事实性错误，比如说我23年重仓纯碱，我当时并没有买纯碱，我买的是玻璃。”                    这里需要解释一下，私募领域有特殊性，信息披露较少，外界很难像公募一样准确跟踪其具体持仓情况，因此《李蓓被流量耽误了》一文中对于半夏产品持仓的描述，基本来自公开报道。    The CAS held the first of two planned hearings of the Football Union of Russia and club teams’ appeal of a FIFA/UEFA ban from UEFA competition on Tuesday.,Tuesday’s hearing, taking place in Lausanne, Switzerland, will be followed by a second hearing next Monday by four Russian clubs, including Zenit St. Petersburg, the reigning Russian Premier League champions, challenging their exclusion from UEFA competition.,UEFA ruled in May to bar Russian football clubs from all tournaments, including men’s teams and the women’s team for the FIFA Women’s World Cup 2023. At least for the remainder of the current season, Russian teams have been banned from the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, Europa Conference League, Women’s Champions League, and Youth League. The Russian bid to host the Euro 2028 and/or Euro 2032 events has also been preemptively rejected.,In arbitration filed in March, the Football Union of Russia demanded the immediate reinstatement of all teams for competition, arguing the “irreparable harm” that their exclusion would have on tournaments, including the FIFA World Cup, potential sponsorship losses, loss of experience, and loss of opportunity to compete against opponents of high standard. The Russian side also stressed that for players 30 years old or older, the 2022 World Cup constituted “the last chance of their career to play such a tournament.”,Former Formula One Boss Ecclestone Backs Putin Over Conflict With Ukraine30 June, 12:39 GMT,The football union argued that the International Olympic Committee resolution issued in February demanding that Russian athletes and officials be barred from international competition on which FIFA and UEFA based their decisions was “generic,” “does not refer to any legal provision and is not binding upon FIFA,” and that sporting authorities were acting in a “discriminatory” manner by barring Russian players.,FIFA argued that Russian teams’ presence or absence in the World Cup and the Women’s World Cup was “not guaranteed,” and dismissed the fact that some players would miss out on their last chance for their World Cup play as “irrelevant.” Furthermore, the association argued that “pursuant to CAS jurisprudence, private sports associations have a wide autonomy and margin of discretion when deciding on matters related to the competitions which they organize.” The CAS sided with FIFA and UEFA and rejected Russia’s cases in April, prompting FUR to appeal.,US Hybrid War Against Russia,Rick Sterling, a California-based investigative journalist who has written extensively on doping in sports, said he finds it unlikely that the CAS will rule in Russia's favor despite its case's "excellent arguments," among them the idea that you don't punish athletes for the actions of their nations.,"The US invaded Iraq and there was no denunciation let alone a punishment of athletes. The US, France and others overthrew the Libyan government, leaving a destroyed state, without criticism from the IOC or FIFA. So why are the Russian athletes being punished? One reason is because of built-in bias and prejudice. The IOC and FIFA are dominated by the West. It is very damaging that the IOC issued a recommendation that Russian athletes be discriminated against. This is a violation of the Olympic Charter against national discrimination," Sterling says.,"The US is openly and actively working to undermine Russia's image abroad, including in sports. They probably pre-coordinated the response to the special operation. Russian athletes are victims of the US hybrid war against Russia, as are Ukrainians and Russians," the journalist believes.,Football isn’t the only sport to have suffered from politicized bans instituted by world and national sporting authorities in the wake of the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, with tennis, basketball, hockey, skating and skiing competitions also affected. The arbitrary nature of the prohibitions has been exemplified by their random nature, with Russian athletes barred from FIFA play, for example, but allowed to compete in the 2022 Winter Paralympics, and at the US Open tennis tournament.,Top Tennis Stars in Favour of Penalising Wimbledon Over Ban on Russian Players, Report Says11 May, 11:40 GMT,The bans affecting Russia’s football players are just the latest instance of discrimination against the country’s athletes by international sporting bodies in recent years. In 2020, the CAS stripped Russia of its right to use its name, flag, and anthem at the Olympics and world championship events for two years, largely on the basis of the testimony of Grigory Rodchenkov, the former director of the Russian Anti-Doping Center laboratory-turned-informant to the World Anti-Doping who fled to the United States and testified about an alleged Russian “state-run doping program.” Russian officials denied the allegations and accused Rodchenkov of altering doping probe data of Russian athletes to fit the required narrative.。

二 | 以2023年的纯碱与玻璃期货为例，当时外界对于李蓓可能做多纯碱和玻璃期货有较多讨论，而李蓓当时在回应中并未明确肯定或者否定。                   文章提到了李蓓曾经辉煌的业绩，以及宏观对冲策略的较高难度，整体来说是比较客观公允的，正如李蓓总提到，“作者还是想尽量客观一点的，没有一边倒的踩我，也没有恶意看空我。”                    就着文中的观点，李蓓对于当前市场上财富管理与资产配置存在的风险，提出了自己的判断，比较有见地，也在市场上引起一些新的讨论，值得探究。                    抗风险逻辑扎实但依赖宏观拐点判断                    李蓓对于当前资产配置的风险点有较深刻的观察。她提到，当前主流资产配置风险高度集中，高净值群体和财富机构的核心重仓集中在量化增强、科创基金、全天候策略、海外资产四类。这四类策略均存在明显风险点。                   比如，量化增强受小盘因子和非线性因子影响，科创基金面临国内利率回升和美国 AI 泡沫破灭的隐患等。且除美国 AI 资本开支预期下修这一风险点外，其余风险的共同诱因都是中国通缩结束、房价物价回升。同时这四类策略对应的资产当前估值偏高，持仓还处于愈发拥挤的状态，潜藏着较大的风险。                   基于这样的判断，李蓓目前的持仓比较偏“深度价值”。                   半夏的股票组合以行业龙头为主，总体 8 倍 PE、0.8 倍 PB，股息率达 5%，80% 持仓具有强顺周期属性，还包含业绩恢复增长的消费品龙头等低估值高股息资产。                   此外，持仓还涉及利率曲线做陡操作，即买中短期国债、空长期国债。                   这种持仓结构在通缩持续的情况下，大概率不会出现明显亏损，甚至可能小涨；而若通缩逆转，这类资产则有望大幅上涨。李蓓认为，半夏投资持仓具备对冲风险的显著优势。                   由此李蓓将未来经济划分为两种情形：一是通缩逆转，此时当下市场重仓的四大策略会因底层逻辑松动而表现糟糕，而半夏投资会迎来大涨；二是通缩持续，半夏投资可能微亏或小赚，四大主流策略则会继续上涨。她认为配置半夏如同持有一份特殊期权，损失有限但盈利空间大，能有效对冲当前资产配置拥挤带来的风险。                   这一判断精准捕捉到了当前市场资产配置 “扎堆” 的问题，这确实是市场一大隐患。                   当大量资金集中在少数几类资产时，一旦触发共同的风险诱因，极易引发集中抛售，造成资产价格大幅波动。

三 | 比如，此前部分热门赛道比如新能源等，出现严重的交易拥挤度，此后因资金集体撤离而出现的阶段性暴跌，都印证了这一点。                   如今资金大量集中在AI产业链，较高的配置比例是否会导致行情下滑，目前这种担忧也比较多。因此10月至今以AI产业链为核心的科技成长板块整体表现一般，与三季度的强势表现相比，已不可同日而语。                   不过以上一轮牛市中新能源板块不同的是，当前AI技术层面依然日新月异，应用也在次第展开，基本面对于估值和拥挤度都有一定的消化能力。                   就像2023年上半年AI产业链经过一轮大幅上涨后，下半年步入调整，不过在获得业绩确认后，以算力为主的AI产业链在2024年下半年开始再次崛起，涨幅远超2023年，因此目前的资产配置 “扎堆” 是否会引发市场风格的转换，主线从科技成长转向顺周期板块，还很难说。                   接下来的行情可能并非简单的“非此即彼”。

四 |                    如果AI依然技术与产品端保持较高的势能，应用也更大程度上落地，科技行情依然会持续。而顺周期板块如果有业绩的反转，也是能同时获得市场的认可。比如基本面有所改善的保险板块在近几个月里，相对不错，中国平安等个股正在逐渐接近2020年核心资产牛市时的高点。                   另外需要注意的是，即使经济基本面反转，通缩逆转，但市场表现可能也不是简单的“顺周期崛起、科技成长调整”，顺周期会崛起，但经济复苏的情况下，市场风险偏好上升，往往会有利于科技成长的表现。

五 | 而提前押注顺周期，能否取得长期较好收益，也不一定，还要看配置情况。

六 | 此前也有过案例，如2022年一些基金经理提前交易疫后复苏，在航空板块重仓，当年的超额收益显著，但此后一直持有航空，业绩反而急转直下。

七 |                     对冲思路合理但不适用于所有投资者                    站在资产组合多元化配置的角度，李蓓的建议比较合理。既然主流资金在科技成长等方面配置较多，如果将部分资金配置到与主流资产反向联动的半夏产品，具备一定的逆向思维，能有效降低组合的整体波动。

八 |                    半夏持仓的低估值高股息属性，在市场波动较大的环境中，具备较强的抗跌能力，强顺周期的属性又使其能精准对接通缩逆转后的市场红利，这种持仓设计确实契合宏观经济周期变化的投资逻辑。                   但前提都建立在对宏观拐点的判断上，若通缩持续时间远超预期，这类顺周期资产可能会长时间处于平淡状态，对追求短期收益的投资者吸引力不足。对于具备一定风险承受力、着眼长期资产配置的投资者，其对冲风险的价值会更为突出一些。

九 |                    李蓓目前的姿态是“等风来”。

十 |                    在通缩结束前撑下来，待通缩结束后迎接业绩的全面回归。

十一 | 这基于对自己判断力的自信，不过过程中要承受一定的压力，特别是在当下私募募资越来越卷、越来越集中的情况下。                   对于文中提到的量化私募冲击、半夏团队组织能力等方面，李蓓并未给出回应。

十二 |                    最近“量化私募20亿额度秒光”的消息，对于依赖主观判断的机构不可谓不震撼。就像媒体面对AI要找到自己的差异化能力一样，主观私募面对量化产品的崛起，也需要找准自己的差异化方向。

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Published on:08:04:52