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锁定万亿订单就能躺赚？这可能是AI产业链条上最大的“伪命题”！_我的网站

一 |     财联社7月21日讯（编辑 潇湘）目前，一环套一环的巨额长期合同，已成为维系人工智能热潮的商业纽带。

二 |     University institutions all over the world are interested in ambitious applicants and always help students adapt to a new place. They are welcomed. Young academics who have chosen education in Russia have shared their experience of studying abroad. They talked about their achievements and how their life and work at South Ural State University (SUSU) is arranged.,Dr. Bagaleu Uday from Warangal, India Came to Russia in 2018,© Bagaleu Uday/Personal archiveBagaleu Uday Bagaleu Uday © Bagaleu Uday/Personal archive,I have been living in Chelyabinsk for three and a half years now. After defending my thesis in chemical engineering at the National Institute of Technology Warangal, India, I decided to continue my research in another country. And when I heard about the latest Russian developments in the field of biotechnology, I had a burning desire to work at SUSU.,For a scientist, moving to another country is a great opportunity to raise his scientific work to a higher level. I learned a lot in the field of food and biotechnology and can now compete with strong researchers. Moreover, because of the education and experience I gained in India, I have been offered an interesting job in the field of packaging material development.,Now I am a senior researcher at the SUSU Department of Food and Biotechnology. This year alone, I have had four publications in Scopus magazine (Scopus is a unified international scientific database - ed. note Sputnik). It was also a great achievement for me to win the young scientist competition. I won a three-year grant to develop a double food-enriching emulsion.,To be honest, I never had any acute feelings about leaving my country. In fact, I consider Chelyabinsk my second home. As long as I work or do my research, I feel comfortable here. My instructor and lab colleagues are always there for me, whether it's my work or just a walk through the city. Furthermore, SUSU launched English-language programs last year. The language will help in traveling abroad to build up my research work. I think science is the only field where people from all the countries can work together to make progress around the world. Science knows no borders.,Uvindu Wijeweera, Postgraduate Student, President of the South Ural Association of International Students and Alumni,I come from Sri Lanka, but I have been studying at SUSU for seven years: I completed my bachelor's and master's degrees in political theory and now I am a postgraduate student in my final year. My research work and future career are closely connected with history. And I am very interested in studying and analyzing the development of other countries, it is very important for a political scientist. Even as a child, I read a lot about Russian literature and, of course, in the end I wanted to see everything with my own eyes. My parents also inspired me to go to another country: my father received part of his education abroad.,In addition to a good political science education, my university invests in the recreation, sports, and social life of its students. I think this is an especially important point for humanitarian professionals on their way to harmonious and well-rounded development, and it is also of great interest to students from other countries. When I came to SUSU, they helped me adapt: they helped me to understand everyday problems and to get acquainted with the culture and classmates. Many foreigners study in English programs or study the first year in Russian at a preparatory faculty. By the way, most of the guys from other countries have never seen winter. It was in Chelyabinsk that I saw snow for the first time in my life.,The experience of working at the international student association has helped me a lot in my studies and academics. Political science is a public science, often public and communication-driven, so a leadership position has proven to be a good place to practice my communication skills.,In general, it seems to me that going through one of the stages of education abroad is a good decision for today's student. This is a great opportunity to get to know a new culture and country. Talent is appreciated in all corners of the planet, and if you have the desire to develop in big steps, the desire to work at the international level, it is worth thinking about discovering this huge world for yourself as early as possible: start from your desires and choose the best of the options.,South Ural State University English-Taught Programs,The official Telegram channel of South Ural State University。然而，眼下一个可能鲜有人思考过的问题是：如果这股热潮消退，这些合同还能紧密生效吗？          为AI提供算力的合同，已成为当前这股热潮中不可或缺的一部分，整个行业都正围绕这些合同进行重构布局。AI供应商表示，这些协议使他们能够前所未有地清晰预见未来收入，从而通过承诺未来将实现创纪录的销售额和利润来打动投资者。         而存储芯片行业或许是其中最极致的缩影。

三 | 近几个月来，存储厂商与其下游客户正频繁签订期限更长的供货协议。这一现象源于自主AI智能体的爆发式增长——这类应用对内存需求极高。

四 | 这似乎正将历史上一个价格竞争激烈、周期性波动且竞争白热化的行业，转变为一个前景更加稳定的行业。         全球大型内存芯片制造商——韩国的三星电子和SK海力士，以及美国的美光科技——近期均创下了创纪录的利润，并宣称供应短缺预计将持续至2028年。SK海力士的一位高管在4月与分析师的电话会议中表示，长期协议有望改善市场对内存业务整体的看法。

五 |          美光在达成此类协议方面尤为积极。其“战略客户协议”通常为期五年，且采用“照付不议”条款——这意味着无论买家是否实际接收内存产品，都必须支付货款。上个月，美光首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra在财报电话会议上表示，未来几年这些协议将贡献公司超过一半的营收。         这对存储股的投资者来说似乎是个利好消息，而且今年以来这些股票的表现确实令人刮目相看——美光股价今年已上涨约三倍，SK海力士涨幅几乎与之相当，三星股价则翻了一番左右。         长期协议在萧条期未必会执行？          然而，尽管长期合同正在推动市场上涨，但人们眼下其实依然有理由质疑：在市场低迷时，这些合同能否提供任何确定性？          事实上，如果内存需求在供应合同到期前出现下滑，这些看似得到保障的合同，很可能会被重新谈判或推延。         因为强行发货的后果，不过是让芯片在客户的仓库里积灰，直到需求重新回暖。而届时，客户势必会优先消化库存而非采购新芯片，这反而会大幅拉长芯片厂商的业绩复苏周期。

六 |          此外，芯片供应商可能也不愿将产品强加给不想要的客户——尤其是当竞争对手表现得更加灵活时。将无人问津的存储芯片推入供应链，可能会损害长期的客户关系。

七 |          无需深入探究科技史，就能找到证据表明——在行业低迷时期，供应商往往会表现出对修改合同更为包容的态度。         在疫情期间的那场全球“芯片荒”中，类似的长期协议潮也曾上演。

八 | 当时，芯片厂商借由这些长期合同筹集产能扩张资金，并以此作为分配紧缺产能的依据。         专注于汽车及电子设备核心部件微控制器(MCU)的Microchip Technology，早在2021年就推出了“优选供应商计划”。然而几年后，当芯片供给从缺口演变为过剩时，该计划便被迅速废除，客户纷纷获得履约豁免，“灵活变通”成为了行业的主基调，大量合同被顺延数年，客户也无需再硬着头皮兑现疫情期间许下的庞大采购承诺。         正如该公司董事长Steve Sanghi在去年11月直截了当地表态：“我们绝不会强迫客户购买任何他们不需要的东西。”          AI生态链被忽视的风险          可以预见到的是，如果AI狂热出现降温，极其相似的一幕大概率会再度上演。         然而，问题在于，眼下整个AI供应链的命运，却正深刻地绑定在这些因各家企业争相抢位而越签越大、越签越长的合同之上。         这种现象其实早已蔓延至存储市场之外。诸如OpenAI、Anthropic这样的顶尖AI开发者与甲骨文、CoreWeave等算力云巨头绑定；这些云厂商转头又签订了采购AI计算设备的巨额订单。而作为设备核心的AI芯片供应商，则与台积电等代工厂签有专属制造协议；台积电的上游，又连结着与荷兰阿斯麦等设备巨头绑定的长期设备采购合同。         层层套娃下，涉及的金额往往极为庞大。         例如，甲骨文去年与OpenAI签署了一项巨额云计算协议，截至上一财季末，其所谓的“剩余履约义务”(RPO)——实质上是该公司尚未履行的合同已高达6380亿美元。甲骨文首席财务官Hilary Maxson上月向分析师表示，这一数字“为我们的未来营收增长提供了非凡的可见性，且全部由客户的长期合同承诺所支撑。”          在过去一年里，整个行业对这种长期合同的依赖呈指数级上升。自2025年年中以来，四大AI支出巨头——谷歌母公司Alphabet、微软、亚马逊及甲骨文——的营收积压总额合计增长了一倍多，增加了逾1万亿美元。         然而，所有这些所谓的“业绩能见度”，随时都可能在一夜之间变得混沌不清；而这些庞大的长期合同，甚至可能成为加剧AI泡沫破裂的催化剂。         国际清算银行在本月早些时候发布的年度经济报告中警示，整个AI供应链的阶段性短缺正在放大过度投资的风险——企业试图通过长期合同锁定未来产能，这反而让他们在面对任何不及预期的需求波动时，承担了更高的风险敞口。         换言之，那些基于这些长期合同就将真金白银押注给相关企业的借贷方与投资者们，恐怕随时会面临一场不设防的现实重击。         （财联社 潇湘）。

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